No. 10 Utah State vs No. 7 UCLA

Thursday, March 20
6:25 pm PT, TNT
Midwest Region, Lexington

UCLA got off to a rough start to 2025, going winless for the first two weeks of the new year and enduring a 1-5 stretch as the calendar flipped from 2024 to 2025.

After that low point, the Bruins reeled off 11 wins in their final 15 games, going 3-3 against eventual NCAA Tournament teams to earn a No. 7 seed.

Creating extra scoring opportunities for themselves has been a key for the Bruins this season. UCLA ranks fourth in the nation with an average of 6.3 more scoring chances per game than their opponents.

Utah State is 30th at +4.2 per game.

UCLA is 61st in the nation with an offensive rebound rate of 32.1% but ranks just 183rd nationally in defensive rebound rate.

To be successful, the Bruins need to limit putback opportunities for the Aggies.

USU is tied with UCLA for 61st with an offensive rebound rate of 32.1%. The Bruins get their extra chances by forcing 15.2 turnovers per game, the 16th most in the nation.

The Aggies also have had difficulties limiting offensive rebounds.

This is a game in which the Bruins could turn to Aday Mara more, and he could create some issues for USU inside.

Mara ranks 15th in the nation with 5.6 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes played.

Now matchups could dictate that, and if the Aggies can get the good guard play from the combo of Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev, they could neutralize that impact and perhaps keep the Bruins smaller.

Falsev is 13th nationally with 2.3 steals per game and if he can create opportunities and points in transition it could force Cronin to go small.

UCLA’s defense against the scoring of the Aggies will be strength on strength.

Utah State averages 80.9 points per game, ranking 28th in the nation. UCLA is 26th nationally allowing just 65.7 per outing.

The Bruins are 14-1 this season when allowing 65 points or fewer and since Cronin took over are 61-3 when holding opponents to 60 or fewer.

UCLA’s defense should be good enough to control things. Expect the game to be played at the pace the Bruins dictate rather than a pace Utah State prefers.

However, to advance to the second round, the Bruins will have to be productive in their half-court sets. At times this season, UCLA has bogged down on offense when not in transition.

If the Bruins can’t force USU turnovers, the game could be tighter than they’d like.

The Utah State guards will determine the Aggies’ success. If they take care of the basketball on offense and create transition opportunities on the other end, they’ll have a chance.