Major League Baseball’s annual awards used to be a lot of fun to talk about, debate, make picks, and explain the rationale.
For me, I think I stopped caring altogether when Miguel Cabrera won the American League MVP in 2012, essentially because he won the Triple Crown. I get it, it’s a rare feat. It’s also incredibly overrated in terms of on-field value, and it overshadowed a significantly better and more valuable performance that same season in the same league.
Cabrera batted .330/.393/.606 for a 166 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR for a Detroit Tigers team that won 88 games. Great season, without question. And it’s cool he won the Triple Crown. But Mike Trout fell four points shy of Cabrera in batting average, beat him by six points in OBP, played a solid center field, and swiped 49 bases for an 89-win Angels club.
It was the first of back-to-back 10-plus fWAR seasons for Trout.
As a result of this and others like it, I lost interest, since the things we value on a baseball field had changed, and still are, but awards were still going to those leaning on traditional statistical categories.
Here I am 12 years later because, well, I don’t think that’s the case anymore. I think voters do a significantly better job now than back in 2012.
I think the debates are fun again, and this season in particular the MVP was fascinating in each league until September served as the separator.
The Rookie race in the National League was compelling, too.
I’m with Keith Law on the Manager of the Year Award; it’s not possible to properly and accurately evaluate the performance of a manager. So nothing from me on that one.
National League MVP
Shohei Ohtani, DH — Los Angeles Dodgers
.310/.390/.646, 181 wRC+, 54 HR, 59 SB, 9.1 fWAR
This was a very tight race, even with the growing buzz for Ohtani and his 50-50 chase, as August turned.
New York Mets star Francisco Lindor entered September having put up a .269/.340/.488 slash (133 wRC+) with 25 stolen bases and elite shortstop defense in 136 games for a team vying for a postseason spot. That production equaled a 6.6 fWAR.
Ohtani finished August with a .293/.377/.622 line (171 wRC+) with 44 homers and 43 stolen bases in 133 games for the division-leading Dodgers out west. Those numbers totaled the same 6.6 fWAR. Lindor’s defensive prowess and Ohtani’s lack of any defensive value at all — and the advantage of not having to play the field — evened things out quite a bit.
Then September happened.
Ohtani played 26 games in the seasons final month, batting .393/.458/.766 with 10 homers and 16 stolen bases. That’s 2.4 fWAR and a 234 wRC+. Lindor missed 11 games with a back injury, so despite his terrific .288/.362/.519 performance, he finishes a distant second in this race. Ohtani ends the season at 9.1 fWAR, Lindor at 7.7 with a .273/.344/.500 slash, 33 homers and 29 stolen bases.
-
Ketel Marte, 2B — Arizona Diamondbacks
.292/.372/.560, 151 wRC+, 36 HR, 6.3 fWAR in 136 games -
William Contreras, C — Milwaukee Brewers
.281/.365/.466, 131 wRC+ 23 HR, 5.4 fWAR in 155 games -
Bryce Harper, 1B — Philadelphia Phillies
.285/.373/.525, 30 HR, 145 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR in 145 games
American League MVP
Aaron Judge, OF — New York Yankees
.322/.458/.701, 218 wRC+, 58 HR, 11.2 fWAR
This too was a race until September.
Judge has been the favorite for the majority of the season, but Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. put up quite a fight until the final month.
About a half a win separated the two through August. Witt had a shot. But Judge outperformed Witt for the month, creating a noticeable gap.
Witt finished the season at .332 — the circuit’s batting champ — with a .389 on-base percentage and 32 homers. He also tallied 31 stolen bases and is Lindor’s equal with the glove at a premium position. It’s an incredible 10.4 fWAR season for Witt, whose Royals recovered from a late swoon and clinched a playoff spot.
Judge, however, had a better and more historic season than Ohtani, even though he won’t get that level of attention. Yeah, yeah, 50-50, blah blah. It’s great. It’s legendary. The stolen-base part is massively skewed by modern rules and environments, but… Judge posted the first .700 or better slugging percentge since Barry Bonds in 2004, and the best wRC+ since that same season when Bonds posted a 233. The modern-day record is Bonds’ 244 set in 2002.
Beyond Bonds, the steroid era, or the Coors Field impact, we have to go all the way back to Ted Williams in 1957 to find a better full-season slugging percentage than Judge posted this season.
Sixty-six seasons have passed since then. Gas was 24 cents a gallon, bread 19 cents, an entire pot roast was 69 cents, eggs were 55 cents a dozen. A five-piece pack of gum was three cents. Some of our parents weren’t even born yet. Others’ parents were toddlers when Williams last did this without significant historical modifiers.
-
Gunnar Henderson, SS — Baltimore Orioles
.281/.364/.529, 155 wRC+, 37 HR, 21 SB, 8.0 fWAR -
Juan Soto, OF — New York Yankees
.288/.419/.569, 180 wRC+, 41 HR, 8.1 fWAR -
Jose Ramirez, 3B — Cleveland Guardians
.279/.335/.537, 141 wRC+, 39 HR, 41 SB, 6.5 fWARNote: If I went six deep here, Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh would have edged out Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox. His .218 average and .311 OBP didn’t scare me off. He posted 5.3 fWAR, hit 33 homers, drove in 100, played elite defense, and led baseball in innings caught. Incredible value for an offensively-challenged club which relies on its run prevention, of which Raleigh has his mitts all over every single day.
National League Cy Young
Chris Sale, LHP — Atlanta Braves
177.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 2.65 xFIP, 2.79 xERA, 32.1% K, 5.6% BB, 6.4 fWAR
Sale ran away with this a bit with a steady season, posting just one month over a 3.00 FIP. He went seven or more innings 13 times, six or more 19 times, and allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but three starts, including his final 18. A true Randy Johnson-like run for Sale in his first season in the senior circuit.
-
Zack Wheeler, RHP — Philadelphia Phillies
200.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 2.79 xERA, 28.5% K, 6.6% BB, 5.4 fWAR -
Cristopher Sanchez, RHP — Philadelphia Phillies
181.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 3.52 xERA, 20.3% K, 5.8% BB, 57.4% GB, 4.7 fWAR -
Dylan Cease, RHP — San Diego Padres
189.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.32 xERA, 29.4% K, 8.5% BB, 4.8 fWAR -
Logan Webb, RHP — San Francisco Giants
204.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 4.23 xERA, 20.5% K, 5.9% BB, 56.8% GB, 4.4 fWAR
American League Cy Young
Tarik Skubal, LHP — Detroit Tigers
192.0 IP, 2.39 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 2.70 xERA, 30.3% K, 4.6% BB, 5.8 fWAR
Skubal ran away with this over the final two months. As runners-up hit some bumps in the road, Skubal kept pace with his first four months.
Skubal struck out 10 or more three time, nine or more seven times, but walked more than two batters in a game just once in 31 outings. Left-handed batters hit one homer off him all year and with runners in scoring position opponents batted .207 and struck out 36.4% of the time.
Bucking some trends, Skubal dominated the lineup thr third time through, allowing a .215 average and maintaining his season-long runs allowed performance. All three of the lefties’ secondaries were dominant this season, but his 95-98 mph fastball set it all up, and no one could hit that pitch, either.
Batters hit .197 with a .286 slug on the four-seamer, including an elite 27.5% whiff rate.
-
Logan Gilbert, RHP — Seattle Mariners
208.2 IP, 3.23ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 3.10 xERA, 27.4% K, 4.6% BB, 4.1 fWAR -
Cole Ragans, LHP — Kansas City Royals
186.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 3.27 xERA, 29.3% K, 8.8% BB, 4.9 fWAR -
Seth Lugo, RHP — Kansas City Royals
206.2 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.83 xFIP, 3.72 xERA, 21.7% K, 5.7% BB, 4.7fWAR -
(tie) Corbin Burnes, RHP — Baltimore Orioles
194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.27 xERA, 23.1% K, 6.1% BB, 3.7 fWARGeorge Kirby, RHP — Seattle Mariners
191.0 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 3.39 xERA, 23% K, 2.0% BB, 4.2 fWAR
National League Rookie of the Year
Jackson Merrill, CF — San Diego Padres
.292/.326/.500, 130 wRC+, 24 HR, 16 SB, 5.3 fWAR
Merrill probably isn’t going to win it, but that’s because voters tend to follow the wow factor of the triple-digit fastball and the strikeouts. Merrill played 155 games and contributed plus value in every single facet of the game, including plus defense in center, his first year playing the position.
He was a star in September as his club battled for a playoff spot (146 wRC+), and was baseball’s ninth best hitter after the All-Star break — second best in the National League.
I get the fascination with Skenes, of course, and it’s far from a travesty if/when he wins, but 133 innings in 23 starts hurts the dominance of the body of work in the framework of a big-league season.
What Merrill did was more unique, more impressive and more important, and therefore more valuable.
-
Paul Skenes, RHP — Pittsburgh Pirates
133.0 IP, 1.99 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 2.56 xERA, 32.9% K, 6.3% BB, 4.3 fWAR -
Jackson Chourio, CF — Milwaukee Brewers
.275/.327/.464, 117 wRC+, 21 HR, 22 SB, 3.9 fWAR -
Masyn Winn, SS — St. Louis Cardinals
.267/.314/.416, 103 wRC+, 15 HR, 11 SB, 3.6 fWAR -
(tie) Joey Ortiz, IF — Milwaukee Brewers
.239/.329/.398, 104 wRC+, 11 HR, 11 SB, 3.1 fWAR
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS — San Francisco Giants
.280/.334/.497, 132 wRC+, 15 HR, 17 SB, 3.1 fWAR
American Legue Rookie of the Year
Colton Cowser, OF — Baltimore Orioles
.242/.321/.447, 120 wRC+, 24 HR, 4.0 fWAR
Cowser had a bad May and a mediocre June, but otherwise was terrific as a supplemental bat in the Orioles’ stacked lineup. Power, defense, a little speed (9 SB), and just enough production versus lefties to stay in the lineup most nights.
He strikes out a lot, but also walks, and it’s 30-homer upside to go with the strong corner defense.
-
Wilyer Abreu, IF/OF — Boston Red Sox
.255/.322/.459, 114 wRC+, 15 HR, 3.0 fWAR -
Austin Wells, C — New York Yankees
.229/.322/.395, 105 wRC+, 13 HR, 3.4 fWAR -
Wyatt Langford, OF — Texas Rangers
.253/.325/.415, 110 wRC+, 16 HR, 19 SB, 2.8 fWAR -
(tie) Cade Smith, RHR — Cleveland Guardians
75.1 IP, 1.91 ERA, 1.40 FIP, 2.41 xFIP, 2.50 xERA, 35.8% K, 6% BB, 2.7 fWAR, 3.04 WPA
Mason Miller, RHR — Oakland Athletics
65.0 IP, 2.49 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 2.21 xFIP, 1.76 xERA, 41.8% K, 8.4% BB, 2.5 fWAR, 3.63 WPA