By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
UCLA’s defensive dominance of Utah State in Lexington on Thursday was nearly complete, holding the Aggies to 47 points, their lowest offensive output since 2021.
The Bruins may have been even more impressive on offense, shooting 41.7% on threes and knocking down 48.1% of their overall field goal attempts.
The offense was fueled by good ball movement as UCLA assisted on 22 of 26 made FGS for an 84.6% assist rate, a big jump from the Bruins season rate of 61.2%, which was 15th best nationally entering Tournament play.
No. 7 UCLA vs No. 2 Tennessee
Saturday, March 22
6:40 pm PT, TBS/truTV
Midwest Region, Lexington
UCLA’s excellent ball distribution needs to continue today against Tennessee as the Vols allow an assist on just 46.9% of opponent field goals this season.
Rick Barnes’s No. 2 seed Volunteers get after it on the defensive end of the floor. UT ranks third in the nation in field goal defense, limiting opponents to just 38.3% on the season.
The Vols are also good inside, blocking shots at the rate of 8.7%.
Both teams will rely on their defensive efforts and play deliberately on offense, ranking among the bottom 60 in the nation in pace.
When the ball is not moving well, the Bruins can sometimes get bogged down in the half-court. If they can create some miscues and get buckets in transition, it would go a long way toward advancing to the second week of the tournament.
That’s easier said than done as Tennessee is among the top 70 in the nation in turnover rate, committing a miscue on just 15.3% of their offensive possessions.
But if any team can get the Vols to cough it up, it’s the Bruins, who enter this one ranked fifth in the nation, forcing a miscue on 22.3% of opponent possessions.
Defensively, the Bruins will need to have a hand in the face of Chaz Lanier at all times. The fifth-year senior is deadly from beyond the arc. He hit six of them in the win over Wofford and has knocked down 116 on the season, just two shy of the UT single-season record.
I expect this one to be a tight low-scoring physical game. Every possession will matter and the Bruins can’t have plenty of empty possessions.
A spot the Bruins excel at is getting more scoring opportunities than their opponents. UCLA is sixth nationally with 6.1 more opportunities per game than their opponents.
Tennessee is getting just 2.7 more cracks at it per game.
If UCLA can create some turnovers and easy scores in transition, they will have a good shot at moving on. If the game is played mostly in the half-court, it will be a huge advantage for the Vols.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
