“A bounce,” Jake McCabe said, following Friday’s 5-4 overtime loss at Amerant Bank Arena.

A blown lead, a commendable comeback, 108 combined hits and 75-plus minutes of seesaw action came down to a pinballing puck launched off Brad Marchand’s blade, off Morgan Rielly’s midsection, and over a blinded Joseph Woll’s right shoulder.

“It happens,” shrugged Rielly, who was the last player to touch two Panthers goals and scored one of his own off an opposing defender. “I mean, that’s how pucks are going in right now, it seems. Not just in this series. Look at last series and around the playoffs — that’s how it’s going in.”

Love it or hate it, hockey will always come parcelled with a percentage of pure luck.

“That’s what it comes down to in these tight games in the playoffs,” McCabe said. “You see it across the league too. Bounces that go your way. And they got theirs tonight.”

Thing is, that luck can be earned.

What was going through coach Paul Maurice’s mind during those deadly rushes? 

Cursing in anger, swearing in celebration — how swiftly emotions swing.

Although Marchand’s winner could hardly be categorized as a snipe, there was some science behind his good fortune.

Nylander, for one, got hemmed in at the end of a marathon 102-second shift, his Leafs’ longest of the night — and one then ended with a shower of plastic rats from the rafters. Linemate Pontus Holmberg was on for 101 seconds, and John Tavares 86 seconds. 

They were gassed to the point of token defence.

“You could tell they were tired. They’re just kind of sitting back. They’re normally aggressive, and they were collapsed pretty low,” Marchand explained. “So, really just trying to look towards finding a lane to get it through. They’re trying to front some pucks, and we had a couple really good opportunities. But really just coming in and trying to change the angle and get a better shot, waiting for some traffic in front. And in overtime, there’s not a bad shot you put at the net. So, obviously, a fortuitous bounce.”

For the way the Maple Leafs jumped out to 2-0 and 3-1 leads early, then fought back to tie the match at 4-4 after a dominant, desperate second period by Florida, Toronto has flexed both the ability to initiate and respond in this series.

“You saw the way that they prepared for the game tonight. They have their killer instinct right now,” said Marchand, borrowing a phrase memorably used by Leafs president Brendan Shanahan as the missing ingredient.

“It’s tough. That’s part of why there’s such a great team. Part of what makes us a good team, too. Because you don’t sit back after you get scored on.”

The Panthers’ desperation showed in their increased intensity in puck battles (they won 62 per cent of them) and their determination to crash the crease. The home side had 33 slot-driving plays to the Leafs’ 26, per Sportlogiq.

After three straight one-goal, don’t-take-a-washroom-break games, it would probably be unfair if either side was up 3-0. 

These teams are too evenly matched for that.

And too dialled in to the details of the game to credit all success with a moment of favourable fluke.

“A goal being scored is literally a tenth of a second, two tenths of a second,” Marchand said. “The details that add up to making those plays happen are really where the work is done. It’s a won battle. It’s a good pinch. It’s a blocked shot. A reload. It’s a save. And those are the moments that lead up to those goals.”

The Maple Leafs have the blueprint. They simply need one more clutch save, one more smart shift change, one more good battle — or maybe one lucky bounce — to steal a split in South Florida.

“We know we can be better,” Tavares said. “We have to be. So, great chance for us to regroup and get back at it on Sunday.

“We’re right there, so just keep going.”

• Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed 13 goals in three games and has yet to keep the Leafs under four. 

What a difference two years makes. 

In the 2023 Leafs-Panthers series, Bobrovsky allowed a total of 10 goals in five games and never more than two per night.

“We trust Bob,” Carter Verhaeghe said. “It’s on us. We’ve been giving up a lot of stuff.”

Added Maurice: “I don’t think Bob cares at all about his stats. I truly don’t. He never has.”

• Because the Panthers’ strategy is to dump and chase, then force turnovers with their forecheck, the Maple Leafs want Woll to play any puck he can to expedite D-zone exits.

Catch is, Woll doesn’t play the puck as naturally or as confidently as Anthony Stolarz does. There have been some adventurous moments.

“They rim the puck a lot,” Woll said. “So I’m just trying to do my best to help us break out.”

Woll’s save percentages this series: .850 in Game 1, .893 in Game 2, and .861 in Game 3.

“I thought he was really good,” Berube said. “I don’t love the fourth goal, but other than that, I thought he was solid.”

• Knies pulled his best Sean Avery impression in Game 2, raising his arms to block the Bobrovsky’s sight line when the big winger set up shop outside the blue paint.

“I just try to use my size and take his eyes as much as possible,” said the 6-foot-3, 227-pound power forward. “I probably can’t use my hands as much, I was told by the refs.”

The “Avery rule” was introduced after the New York Rangers agitator used his hands to block legendary New Jersey Devils goaltender Martin Brodeur’s eyes in a 2008 playoff series.

Knies toed the line of an unsportsmanlike penalty.  

“I just gotta position myself pretty good and hopefully I can help the team out there,” said Knies, who has turned the home-plate area into his office.

“He’s made a living there this year, and he’s doing a great job of it,” Berube said. “On (Game 2’s) winning goal, he’s right to the net front right away, taking the eyes away of the goalie, and he’s done an excellent job of it. We’ve got to continue to do that with Bob in net. We’ve got to get the paint on this guy.”

• A prescient Maurice swapped his entire fourth line as the series shifted to Sunrise.

Jonah Gadjovich, A.J. Greer, and Tomas Nosek replaced Jesper Boqvist, Mackie Samoskevich, and Nico Sturm. Then out-attempted Toronto 10-6 when on the ice.

Gadjovich scored in his playoff debut.

“They work so hard every day. We needed a style change,” Maurice explained. “There’s something there with the line.”

Toronto used Dennis Hildeby as Woll’s backup because Matt Murray is sick.

• Just a little ’stitious.

Since turning 29, William Nylander has worn the same olive suit to every hockey game. 

“It’s just the one that’s in the front right now,” said Nylander, downplaying the routine after Game 2 of this series. And it’s also the one he packed for Fort Lauderdale.

As the Leafs’ win streak ends, a wardrobe switch may be in order.