By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
BYU has been rising for weeks, with six straight wins.
Now, heading into the final regular-season contests, the Cougars from Provo are at the top of our Power Rankings.
Saint Mary’s has earned its stripes as well, moving up after securing a conference title.
UCLA and Arizona have struggled to put two wins together over the past two weeks but remain among the nation’s best when everything is clicking.
And Oregon is looking scary again, getting hot at just the right time, as Dana Altman-coached teams so often do.
Here’s how I see the Top 10 squads from the West stacking up heading into Week 18.
1. BYU (12-6, 21-8)
This is it. The program has officially made it.
Forget about the days in the WCC. BYU basketball has evolved. With a large NIL war chest and the Big 12 stage to play on, this is what the program has strived to become.
Sustaining the success is the new challenge. And with success comes expectations.
At this point, anything less than a run to the Sweet 16 would be considered a failure.
2. Saint Mary’s (17-1, 27-4)
What if we gave Saint Mary’s the benefit of the doubt?
The Gaels won the WCC Regular Season Championship by beating Gonzaga twice and losing just one game in the conference.
If you ignore the nonconference losses to Arizona State, Boise State, and Utah State, there would be genuine expectations for Saint Mary’s to advance out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
After all, Randy Bennet has led the program to three-straight bids to the Big Dance, including two appearances in the Round of 32.
3. UCLA (11-7, 20-9)
When UCLA was in the Pac-12, it was always low-hanging fruit to deride the Big Ten as being overrated. To a certain extent, it was true.
The league would always get overblown hype, leading to undeserving teams receiving at-large bids and 90% of the schools getting bounced in the First Round.
But now, to believe the Bruins will make a deep run in March, you almost have to buy into the propaganda.
It begs the question: Will Mick Cronin’s team lose in the Round of 64?
4. Arizona (13-5, 19-10)
Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats are trending in the wrong direction.
Arizona has lost four of its last six games and is now 2-3 on the road against the original Big 12 schools.
But what happens in March always defines the season. The Cats have the potential to make a run. Joining the Big 12 was always expected to pay dividends in the NCAA Tournament.
Now, we get to see if those expectations were valid.
5. Oregon (10-8, 21-8)
The Ducks have got it back together.
Dana Altman’s team is on a five-game winning streak with tilts against Indiana and Washington to finish the year.
Both of those matchups should result in wins and make Oregon one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the postseason.
But UO has to handle business against the Hoosiers on Tuesday. A loss in Eugene to a struggling IU squad would break the momentum.
6. New Mexico (15-3, 23-6)
All three of New Mexico’s Mountain West losses have come on the road.
The Lobos have dropped games to San Jose State, Boise State, and San Diego State this season. Other than the defeat to SJSU, the resume in conference play is respectable.
But it’s easy to doubt UNM’s ceiling. The nonconference losses to Arizona State and New Mexico State are noteworthy.
If the Lobos lose to Nevada on Tuesday, the questions will only grow louder.
7. Gonzaga (14-4, 23-8)
In the context of this season, the blowout wins over Santa Clara and San Francisco were critical.
The victories show that Gonzaga is still a step above the upper-tier teams in the WCC.
But the Zags are supposed to dominate the Conference. No matter how much CBS Sports Network tries to hype up the WCC, there’s a massive step up in competition in the NCAA Tournament.
If GU has struggled this much in league play, a loss in the First Round wouldn’t be surprising.
8. San Diego State (13-5, 20-7)
The win over New Mexico arguably made San Diego State a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
The nonconference resume speaks for itself and the brand has sway with the Committee.
With wins over Houston and Creighton, the Aztecs might be the Mountain West’s best hope for a deep run. But SDSU is likely hovering around a 12-seed and must keep winning to avoid the Play-In game.
Brian Dutcher’s team faces UNLV in Las Vegas this week for a game they can’t afford to lose.
9. Utah State (14-5, 24-6)
The Aggies have lost too many critical games in blowout fashion.
Utah State was crushed by New Mexico, Boise State, and Colorado State and even has a nonconference loss to UC San Diego.
To be fair, the wins over Saint Mary’s and San Diego State on the road are respectable.
But teams that have the potential to make deep runs in March don’t get consistently blown out in the biggest games of their season. The stage is just too bright for USU.
10. UC San Diego (16-2, 26-4)
Entering the final week of the regular season riding an 11-game win streak, UC San Diego is in a strong position.
The Tritons are No. 34 in the NET and 4-2 in combined Quad 1 and 2 games. The Big West may be considered a “mid-major”, but the league is more aptly described as a “low-major.”
Getting multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament might be impossible.
But if UC San Diego loses in its conference championship game, the Committee will have a choice on its hands.
Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
