By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
UCLA is peaking at the right time. Arizona is on a roll. New Mexico has taken over the Mountain West. And watch out for Saint Mary’s in the WCC.
The fate of the squads below them may keep changing, but these four teams have stayed reliably on track. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, their places in the postseason seem assured.
The same cannot be said for Oregon, which once controlled the top of these rankings, but has since suffered five straight losses. Or for BYU, which was routed by Cincinnati.
Here’s how I see the Top 10 squads from the West stacking up heading into Week 15.
1. UCLA (9-4, 18-6)
The Bruins are one of the hottest teams in the country. Mick Cronin’s squad advanced their winning streak to seven with victories over Michigan State and Penn State.
But UCLA is still two games behind Purdue in the Big Ten standings.
This week features road matchups against Illinois and Indiana. Coming away with a split is a fair expectation.
2. Arizona (11-1, 17-6)
Arizona is 11-1 in the Big 12 with five wins over ranked opponents.
The Cats led for almost the entire game against Texas Tech despite being down a starter. Credit Tommy Lloyd and his players for continuing to make in-season gains.
It’s clear that the team has bought in and the players believe they can beat anyone. Now, they just need to find consistency.
3. New Mexico (12-1, 20-4)
Richard Pitino and the Lobos crushed Air Force and Colorado State last week.
Sitting in sole possession of First Place in the Mountain West standings, New Mexico is well-positioned to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.
The last time the program had back-to-back appearances in the Big Dance was in 2013 and 2014. But seeding is key and UNM must continue to beat up on the MWC teams.
4. Saint Mary’s (11-1, 21-4)
The Gaels lost their first WCC game of the season after beating Gonzaga in Moraga.
But the defeat on the road to San Francisco wasn’t that damaging and Saint Mary’s followed it up with a double-digit road win at Oregon State.
With a two-game lead in the Conference standings, the WCC Regular Season Championship is almost wrapped up.
5. Gonzaga (9-3, 18-7)
The Zags have responded. Mark Few’s team put together two straight blowout wins after losing to Saint Mary’s to start the month.
But San Francisco comes to Spokane on Thursday for a critical matchup. A large margin of victory would indicate Gonzaga is back on track.
Don’t be surprised when it happens.
6. Oregon (5-8, 16-8)
Dana Altman’s team has fallen apart. The Ducks have lost five straight games and are 5-8 in the Big Ten.
Having a sub-.500 record in conference puts UO’s seed into question.
Oregon’s NET Ranking of 35 would help it if the Selection Show were today. But the Ducks are at risk of becoming a Bubble Team if they don’t turn it around soon.
7. Utah State (11-2, 21-3)
The jury remains out on the Aggies.
They may be a paper tiger that will get bounced in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Or perhaps Utah State finds a way to beat both Colorado State and New Mexico this week.
If that happens, the postseason expectations will change. Until then, Utah State must prove it.
8. BYU (6-6, 15-8)
It’s one thing to lose to Arizona. It’s an entirely different issue to get blown out by Cincinnati.
The shocking margin of defeat on the road draws BYU back under the microscope. The Big 12 is a respected league and the Bearcats were ranked at one point this season.
But losing by that many points to a bottom-tier team puts the rest of the year in question.
9. San Francisco (10-3, 20-6)
The Dons are 15-0 at home this season and sit in Second Place in the WCC standings.
At No. 60 in the NET and No. 66 in KenPom, San Francisco is on the wrong side of the Bubble.
But USF is having a strong season and could force itself into the picture if it beats Gonzaga on Thursday.
10. UC San Diego (10-2, 20-4)
The Tritons beat UC Irvine this weekend and are tied for first in the Big West standings.
At No. 50 in KenPom and No. 50 in the NET, UC San Diego is a borderline at-large candidate. However, it’s highly unlikely that the Big West would get multiple bids.
That means the only route to a Cinderella Run is by winning the Big West Tournament.
Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
