By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Beware of the No. 12 seed vs. No. 5 seed matchup.
The NCAA Tournament has seen the 12 seed upset the 5 seed 56 times throughout the years, including McNeese State’s upset of Clemson on Thursday.
That is a win percentage of 35.3% for the lesser seed and we have seen at least one 12-over-5 flip in 33 of the last 39 men’s tournaments.
No. 12 Liberty vs No. 5 Oregon
Friday, March 21
7:10 pm PT, truTV
East Region, Seattle
No. 5 Oregon will meet No. 12 Liberty in the East Region today in Seattle.
The Flames dominated Conference USA this season and are a dangerous opponent for the Ducks.
Liberty ranks fifth in the nation in three-point shooting at 39.5% from deep.
If the Flames get hot from deep, the Ducks could be on upset alert.
No team in the tournament scores more of its points off threes than Liberty.
The Flames are getting 41.3% of their total points from treys, the eighth-most of any team in the nation this season.
Oregon’s opponents are scoring 29.9% of their points from deep and the Ducks are allowing opponents to shoot just 31.6% on threes this season, ranking 56th nationally.
However, the Ducks will have a tremendous edge down low and on the boards.
Rebounding is Liberty’s biggest weakness, ranking 298th in the nation with a rate of 47.6%.
Nate Bittle could have a big game in this one.
The other thing the Ducks have going for them is a tendency to win games in postseason tournaments.
UO’s 76 wins in March under Dana Altman are the most in the country since he took over in 2010-11.
Ultimately, I think Oregon’s size and athleticism will be too much for LU and lead the Ducks to the Second Round.
But in the Big Dance, if a sharp-shooting team lights it up from deep, all bets are off.
This one could get dicey.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
