But not only did Saturday night’s contest, a 4-2 Senators win, mean something to both teams in terms of the standings — it could foreshadow a post-season matchup.
Recently, the Senators have had the upper hand against the Maple Leafs, winning four straight against their biggest rival, dating back to last season, prior to Saturday night’s tilt.
And the Sens kept it rolling on Hockey Night in Canada to sweep the three-game season series.
The key for Ottawa has been shutting down Toronto’s big guns and keeping their own firing. It was tight-checking, physical, feisty hockey as both teams’ stars were unmistakable, but Ottawa’s were simply better.
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It all had the air of a playoff preview.
“One place that beats winning on Saturday night, and that’s home, but this one feels pretty darn good,” said Linus Ullmark.
As Ottawa closes in on its first playoff spot in seven seasons, there is a realistic chance it finds Toronto in the first round. The Senators are now within four points of Toronto and Tampa Bay for second and third place in the Atlantic division.
Simply put, if Ottawa was to continue climbing the standings, it would be a bad matchup for Toronto.
“I think this time around, it feels like we’re not as satisfied as we were last time,” said Ullmark about the Senators’ second six-game winning streak of the season. “And so we know that we want to go for seven (straight wins), then eight, nine and just keep building.”
A possible explanation as to why the Senators have consistently beaten Toronto is that these games simply mean more to them.
Ask any Senator how amped up they are to play Toronto, and they will give an answer like Jake Sanderson did.
“I don’t know. I think we just get fired up for this game,” said Sanderson.
Let’s examine how Ottawa matches up against Toronto. On the season, Toronto has scored three goals in three games. That’s been primarily because Shane Pinto and linemates Michael Amadio and Ridly Greig have limited Auston Matthews to only one goal in the two games he’s played against Ottawa, and it came off a blunder with the puck by Ullmark.
While the mistake was reminiscent of Patrick Lalime in the early 2000s, Ullmark rebounded to play excellently, stopping 21 of 23 shots.
“I got to work on my dangles a little bit,” Ullmark joked post-game.
History doesn’t have to repeat itself.
The Pinto-Amadio-Greig line has only allowed six goals in 116 minutes at five-on-five this season while matching up against the toughest opponents. Plus, it tends to get underneath Toronto’s skin thanks to Greig, whose reputation from last season is either the slapshot empty-net hero or villain, depending on the fanbase.
Greig fought Scott Laughton on Saturday.
Late in the third with the game on the line, Amadio intercepted a puck that was headed to Matthews for a sure backdoor goal, took it the other way and buried and empty netter. The line scores, fights and defends.
Ottawa showed how it can shut down Toronto’s high-power offence with the trio, and it’s not like Toronto’s track record in the playoffs is stellar. The Greig-Pinto-Amadio trio ranks 108th of 430 eligible combinations in expected goals allowed per 60 at 2.07, according to Evolving Hockey. Swap Amadio for Nick Cousins and the line is 46the in the league in that same category. Ottawa has options to stop Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and company.
Meanwhile, Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk love playing Toronto. The duo is 11-9-3 against Toronto since Stutzle entered the league in 2020-21. They’ve thrived.
Since Tkachuk and Stutzle’s current linemate, Claude Giroux, joined the team in the 2022-23 season, the Senators are 7-3-1 against Toronto.
The trio was extremely successful two seasons ago when all three posted career highs in points as Senators while primarily playing together.
This season, coach Travis Green has split them up at times to provide balanced scoring, but he reunited them last month.
Statistics reflect play at 5-on-5 according to Natural Stat Trick
The line works well together, as Stutzle injects pace, playmaking and zone entries, Tkachuk is the bruiser and scorer while Giroux does a bit of both while providing elite hockey IQ.
Against Toronto, the line was dominant. After Ottawa fell down 1-0, it hopped hopped over the boards immediately and struck for the game-tying goal 78 seconds later.
Tkachuk won a battle and threw the puck to Stutzle on the hash marks. As Giroux drew defenders, Stutzle passed it to Sanderson who wired it home to tie the game. Classic.
Then, after Toronto re-took the lead at 2-1, the line produced another good shift that left a tired Leafs team scrambling and allowed David Perron to capitalize and tie the game 2-2.
This season, five of Stutzle’s goals have been assisted by Tkachuk and 16 of Tkachuk’s goals have been assisted by Stutzle. On Saturday night, their line primarily went up against Marner’s line. They dominated with a 15-7 shot share and an expected goals share of 80.4 per cent. Another good sign if the teams match up in the playoffs.
What’s fascinating is that Ottawa’s scoring success seems to be reliant on that top line.
For most of the first half of the season, Tkachuk and Stutzle played together without Giroux. They were split up on Dec. 29 against Minnesota when Ottawa won 3-1, and immediately went cold.
Over the next 13 games that Tkachuk and Stutzle were separated from late December to mid-January, Tkachuk notched four points and Stutzle recorded five. Ottawa was shut out five times, while averaging the fewest goals per game in the league at 1.85.
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When Toronto rolled into Ottawa on Jan. 25, Green reunited Tkachuk and Stutzle alongside Perron. Stutzle scored to begin his 14-game point streak, but the line was otherwise quiet as Tkachuk’s pointless streak extended to 10 games.
The next day against Utah, Giroux replaced Perron and scored thanks to a Stutzle set-up, which snapped his 13-game goalless drought. Then, Giroux set up Tkachuk to snap his own 10-game drought. Ottawa proceeded to win its next two games, scoring 11 goals in total.
When Josh Norris got hurt against Minnesota on Feb. 1, Green reshuffled the lines again to spread out the talent. Ottawa went on to lose five of six with the trio split up, averaging only 2.6 goals per game.
After the 4 Nations Face-Off hiatus and Tkachuk’s return to the lineup against San Jose, the trio was reunited. Since then, both Tkachuk and Stutzle have scored overtime winners. Stutzle has assisted four of Tkachuk’s six goals since his return on March 1. The line has combined for 24 points in the eight games.
In the meantime, Ottawa has averaged the most goals per game in the league at 4.25, going 7-0-1 in that stretch.
Giroux took it home Saturday night by throwing a puck on goal that hit Chris Tanev in front for the game-winner.
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“We’re playing the right way. We played for 60 minutes the way we wanted to,” Giroux told Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas after the game.
Toronto’s netminder Anthony Stolarz was impressed.
“They’re just throwing pucks at the net and turning chicken s–t into chicken soup and just getting bounces,” said Stolarz. “Maybe that’s something we can take from them and incorporate into our game because it seems to be working for them.”
But it isn’t just the Senators forward lines. If Ottawa was to play Toronto in the playoffs, it would have the best defenceman and goaltender in the series in Sanderson and Ullmark. Toronto’s edge is in its Core Four and playoff experience, but neither has proven to be helpful in the post-season. Ottawa brings exuberance, lacks pressure, is playing better at the moment and appears to have Toronto’s number.
Who wouldn’t want to see the Battle of Ontario in the first round of the playoffs?