By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Perhaps one of the most eagerly anticipated 11-seed First Four games awaits the Aztecs tonight in Dayton.
And it has everything to do with San Diego State’s opponent.
North Carolina’s selection into the field of 68 is being scrutinized more than any other team arguably in history.
Thanks in large part to some of their bubble mates who got snubbed—most notably West Virginia—many are questioning UNC’s inclusion after a down year.
The biggest question is whether the decision had anything to do with Tar Heels AD Bubba Cunningham being the head of the NCAA selection committee.
Another team feeling disenfranchised as one of the First Four Out is Boise State.
The Broncos lost to Colorado State in the Mountain West title game, but they defeated SDSU by 10 last Friday.
So, this one sets up as a matchup between a couple of teams with something to prove.
No. 11 North Carolina vs No. 11 San Diego State
Tuesday, March 18
6:10 pm PT, truTV
Wanting to prove doubters wrong isn’t the only commonality between the two squads.
Statistically speaking, they are a mirror image of each other.
UNC shoots 54.9% on two-point FGs, and San Diego State performs equally well in defending the two, allowing just 45%, eighth in the nation.
Carolina shoots well from the floor, 34th nationally at 47.6%, while the Aztecs lead the nation in FG defense at 38.1%.
UNC does not rebound well offensively, ranking 224th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, while SDSU is 226th in defensive rebound rate.
And there are a ton of other statistical comparisons that would indicate this one could come down to the final possession.
A big key to watch, and an area where Carolina has a huge advantage, is allowing putbacks.
UNC is getting 75% of defensive rebound chances this season, ranking 54th in the nation. The Aztecs are 204th nationally in offensive rebound rate at 27.2%.
Neither team creates a lot of extra scoring chances per game compared to their opponents.
But San Diego State’s ability to get some second-chance opportunities against the Tar Heels could determine whether they move on to Milwaukee and a date with Ole Miss on Thursday.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
