In a match that electrified the Foro Italico, American tennis sensation Peyton Stearns delivered the biggest upset of her career, outlasting former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4) to storm into the quarterfinals of the Italian Open 2025.
The 23-year-old’s gritty performance on Monday, May 12, showcased her relentless baseline game and unshakable nerve, cementing her status as a rising force on the WTA Tour. With this victory, Stearns continues her remarkable run in Rome, having already toppled fifth seed Madison Keys in the previous round, and now sets her sights on a deep tournament run.
A Battle for the Ages
The Round of 16 clash was a two-hour, 43-minute marathon that had fans on the edge of their seats. Stearns, ranked No. 42 in the world, faced a formidable challenge in Osaka, a four-time Grand Slam champion who had been rediscovering her form on clay.
Osaka’s recent title at L’Open 35 de Saint Malo and her powerful serving—19 aces in Rome prior to this match—made her a heavy favorite. Yet Stearns, buoyed by her upset over Keys (2-6, 6-2, 7-6[3]), brought an aggressive game plan and unwavering focus to the baking Center Court.
Stearns struck first, breaking Osaka in the opening set to claim it 6-4 with 13 winners and a 70% first-serve point win rate. Osaka, however, roared back in the second, leveraging her 10 aces and 52% break point conversion to level the match at 3-6. The deciding set was a rollercoaster, with neither player yielding an inch. Stearns saved 7 of 10 break points, while Osaka struggled, converting none of her three opportunities. The
The match culminated in a thrilling third-set tiebreak, where Stearns’ composure shone. “I was just trying not to throw up in the middle of the court,” Stearns quipped post-match, reflecting on the tiebreak’s intensity. Her 33 winners to Osaka’s 28 and a clutch performance in the final points sealed a 7-6(4) triumph.
Stearns’ Road to the Quarterfinals
Stearns’ journey to the Italian Open quarterfinals has been nothing short of spectacular. Kicking off her campaign in the Round of 128, she dispatched local favorite Nuria Brancaccio 6-3, 6-2, showcasing her clay-court prowess with an 81% win probability based on 10,000 simulations. In the Round of 64, she stunned 28th seed Anna Kalinskaya 6-2, 6-3, capitalizing on her aggressive baseline play and anticipation skills.
Her third-round upset of Keys, the reigning Australian Open champion, marked her second career top-10 win and propelled her to a career-high projected ranking of No. 35.
The American’s clay credentials are well-established. Her maiden WTA title came on clay at the 2024 Rabat Grand Prix, and she reached the final of the 2023 Copa Colsanitas. In Rome, Stearns has been relentless, dropping just one set across four matches and averaging 30 winners per match. Her 10-4 clay record over the past year underscores her comfort on the surface, a fact that Osaka learned the hard way.
What’s Next for Stearns?
Stearns now faces a daunting quarterfinal matchup against either Danielle Collins, who stunned reigning champion Iga Swiatek, or Elina Svitolina. Predictive models give Stearns a fighting chance, with her current form suggesting she could push top players to the limit. Her agility, honed during her NCAA championship days at the University of Texas, and her ability to grind out physical battles make her a dangerous opponent.
A Bright Future on the Horizon
Stearns’ performance in Rome is a testament to her rapid ascent. Since turning pro in 2022 after winning the NCAA singles title, she has climbed from outside the top 100 to a career-high No. 42, achieved on May 5, 2025. Her fourth-round appearance at the 2023 US Open and consistent results in 2025, including a strong showing at the Madrid Open, signal her potential for a top-20 breakthrough. Her 2-0 head-to-head record against Keys and now a signature win over Osaka bolster her confidence as she eyes the French Open later this month.
For American tennis fans, Stearns represents a beacon of hope in a post-Serena era. Alongside players like Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, she is part of a new wave pushing U.S. women’s tennis forward. Her Rome heroics, coupled with her 1-11 record against top-10 players improving with each upset, suggest she’s ready to compete with the best.
Final Thoughts
Peyton Stearns’ stunning victory over Naomi Osaka at the Italian Open 2025 is more than an upset—it’s a statement. With a lethal forehand, steely resolve, and a knack for clutch moments, the 23-year-old is rewriting her narrative on the WTA Tour.
As she prepares for her quarterfinal clash, the tennis world is watching, eager to see how far this free-swinging American can go. Will Rome be the stage for her first WTA 1000 semifinal? One thing is certain: Peyton Stearns is a name you won’t forget.
