And then there were two.
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field has been whittled down to two as Ohio State gets set to take on Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship Game at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday in Atlanta.
The Buckeyes will be looking to capture their first national title since 2014, while Notre Dame aims to reach the top of the college football mountain for the first time since 1988.
Ryan Day’s Ohio State team has steamrolled through this year’s CFP, beating Tennessee, Oregon and Texas by a combined score of 111-52. Chip Kelly’s offense is averaging 448 yards and 37 points per contest through three games, while the defense has held opponents to an average of 17 points per game.
On the other side, Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame team has relied on the same formula they’ve used all season to get to this point: a solid rushing attack and elite defensive play. The Fighting Irish have averaged 155 yards on the ground in wins over Indiana, Georgia and Penn State, while holding those three powerhouse teams to 17 points per game.
So, what is the winning formula for both of these teams, and who could be the X-Factor in this game?
FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen are here to preview the CFP National Championship.
What is the formula for Ohio State to win this game?
Laken Litman: Make quarterback Riley Leonard one-dimensional. Leonard’s strength is his grit and toughness as a runner – he averages 57.7 yards per game. And whether it’s a designed run or a scramble, he makes things happen with his legs. Just take the CFP quarterfinal vs. Georgia where Leonard went 32 yards across midfield on a designed run and probably could have kept going if not for a facemask (that referees missed) in the second quarter. Later, he dove over a Georgia player during a run on third-and-7 in the fourth quarter.
Ohio State’s defense is coming off a dazzling performance against Texas in the Cotton Bowl, where the lasting memory was Jack Sawyer’s strip-sack of Quinn Ewers on fourth-and-goal and then scooping up the fumble and returning it 83 yards to make it a two-score game late in the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes got pressure on Ewers all night – sacking him four times – and made him uncomfortable in the pocket, which forced him to rush throws at times. If Ohio State can contain Leonard, it’ll be in good shape to win the national championship.
RJ Young: Be Ohio State. Not the team we saw before Oregon with a defensive scheme that was as predictable as it was pedestrian, nor a quarterback who did not realize he was out of time as the game clock struck zero in a one-point game. Not the offense that was hell-bent on challenging the strength of Michigan’s 2024 football team — its defensive line — with a run-game that was as useless as it was effective. Be the Ohio State that took to the air to defeat Tennessee and Oregon in succession with a defense that has created at least four sacks in each of the last three games and with a quarterback who is capable of providing service to the best wide receiver room in the sport.
As has been the case all year, the only opponent that can beat Ohio State is itself. Stay out of your own way.
Michael Cohen: Stop the run. It’s probably as simple as that for Ohio State in this matchup, given the supreme discrepancy between how well Notre Dame has run the ball this season (14th nationally, 210.8 yards per game) and how poorly the Fighting Irish have thrown the ball (102nd nationally, 194.3 yards per game) with transfer quarterback Riley Leonard, a dual-threat player known more for his contributions on the ground than through the air. Leonard, who joined Notre Dame after spending the last three seasons at Duke, has thrown the same number of interceptions (three) as touchdown passes (three) in the College Football Playoff, with two of those picks coming in the Orange Bowl victory over Penn State.
But Leonard is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 866 yards and 16 touchdowns on 167 carries this season, including at least 11 carries in each of Notre Dame’s three playoff games. The only quarterbacks with more rushing yards than Leonard this season were Bryson Daily from Army (1,659), Tyler Huff from Jacksonville State (1,344), Blake Horvath from Navy (1,246), Devon Dampier from New Mexico (1,166) and Parker Navarro from Ohio (1,046). Leonard and tailback Jeremiyah Love, who is playing through a knee injury but rushed for 1,121 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, form one of the most effective rushing duos in the country. They should provide a healthy test for an Ohio State run defense that ranks third nationally with an allowance of only 89.9 yards per game, which includes just 35 rushing yards combined against Oregon and Texas in the postseason.
What is the formula for Notre Dame to win this game?
Michael: Create takeaways to win the turnover battle. For as explosive as Notre Dame’s offense was at times this year — the Fighting Irish exceeded 45 points in exactly half of their regular season games and still rank sixth nationally in scoring at 37 points per game — injuries to key players along the offensive line and at running back have slowed what first-year coordinator Mike Denbrock can reasonably expect from his unit. Veteran quarterback Riley Leonard lacks both the arm strength and the receiving weapons to pump the ball downfield consistently, especially against an Ohio State defense that allows the fewest passing yards per game (161.1) of any team in the country. And it’s unclear exactly what Notre Dame’s rushing attack will look like without left tackle Anthonie Knapp (high ankle sprain) and with tailback Jeremiyah Love (knee) limited to just 17 carries for 64 yards against Penn State and Georgia combined.
All of which means that the Fighting Irish would greatly benefit from creating a turnover or two that would rob Ohio State of extra possessions and reduce the burden on Notre Dame’s offense, with a lower-scoring game almost certainly amenable to head coach Marcus Freeman and his defensive background. The good news for Notre Dame fans is that no team in the country has created more takeaways than the Fighting Irish, with defensive coordinator Al Golden overseeing a ferocious and ball-hawking group. Notre Dame’s total of 19 interceptions, two of which have come in the postseason, ranks fifth nationally behind only BYU (22), Texas (22), San Jose State (21) and Penn State (20). While Notre Dame’s tally of 13 fumbles recovered is tied for third nationally behind only Memphis (15) and Duke (14). The Fighting Irish have notched at least one takeaway in 14 of their 15 games this season. The only exception was the team’s lone loss of the season to Northern Illinois.
Laken: First of all, it would help if defensive coordinator Al Golden followed the blueprint Texas had for stopping Jeremiah Smith. The star freshman wide receiver was held to a season-low one catch for 3 yards in the Cotton Bowl. Obviously, Ohio State has plenty of other weapons within its offense, but locking down Smith made things tougher on Will Howard.
The other thing is that if Notre Dame can keep making plays in the passing game (as it did vs. Penn State) and not be so reliant on the run (because the Buckeyes’ stout defense will likely have something to say about that), that will pay off. Fighting Irish wideout Jaden Greathouse became the first receiver to surpass 100 yards in a game all season vs. Penn State, and if Leonard can keep feeding him, Greathouse has shown he has a knack for making big plays.
Given Ohio State has the talent advantage at almost every position, Notre Dame cannot afford to lose the turnover battle or give up chunk plays like both Oregon and Texas did the past two games.
RJ: Run the ball. When it’s first-and-10, run the ball. When it’s second-and-neutral, run the ball. And when it’s third down — third-and-long or third-and-short — call a pass play with a run-option, sprint-option or a flat out QB draw.
Notre’s recipe for success must be built around the lower halves of Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Keeping the Ohio State offense off the field and giving the Ohio State defense no shot at tackles for loss is how Notre Dame can win the game. Bear in mind, Notre Dame took out Georgia by two touchdowns with Leonard passing for just 90 yards all game. That is the kind of game they’ll have to play to defeat a more talented Buckeyes team.
Who is the biggest X-Factor in this game?
RJ: Aneyas Williams. The Notre Dame tailback was the catalyst for the Fighting Irish’s comeback win against Penn State with an explosive reception and a 15-yard rush to set up a Leonard rushing TD. Texas exploited a weakness in the Ohio State defense when it lined up Jaydon Blue in the backfield and secured a one-on-one matchup with linebacker Sonny Styles in coverage. Each time Texas QB Quinn Ewers passed to Blue for a TD, the pattern was run at Styles, who got beat on coverage and then got caught in a blitz.
Williams has the skills et to take advantage of Styles in this game, too. He finished as Notre Dame’s second-leading receiver against Penn State with five catches for 66 yards.
Michael: Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson. For the second time in as many games, Henderson broke things open for the Buckeyes’ offense with a lengthy touchdown run that demoralized the competition at a critical moment. In the Rose Bowl, where Henderson finished with 114 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, he exploded for a 66-yard touchdown run near the midway point of the second quarter that pushed Ohio State’s lead to 31-0, all but sealing his team’s trip to the national semifinals. And in the Cotton Bowl, where Henderson finished with 117 scrimmage yards and one score, he upended a 7-7 game by transforming a simple screen pass into a 75-yard touchdown that gave the Buckeyes a huge momentum boost in the final seconds of the second quarter. Henderson is a genuine home run threat every time he touches the ball, and that might be the kind of jolt Ohio State needs against an excellent Notre Dame defense. His total of 31 carries gaining at least 10 yards leads the country for players with fewer than 150 attempts this season. He’s averaging one run of 10-plus yards every 4.3 carries, which is far and away the best rate of his career.
Laken: I’m going with Greathouse. He entered the Orange Bowl with just 31 catches for 359 yards and one touchdown, then had seven catches for 105 yards and a touchdown, which tied the game late in the fourth quarter. In order to win, the Irish are going to have to make plays in the passing game and Greathouse has the ability to be a dangerous playmaker. Plus, he’s been on the big stage before. While he’s just a college sophomore, he won three straight Texas state championships at Westlake High School. In the 2021 title game, he had a state championship record 236 yards receiving with three touchdowns and was named Offensive MVP. He’s plenty capable of being a downfield threat for the Irish if Leonard can get him the ball.
Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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