As a former No. 1 overall pick with a cannon for an arm and 10 seasons under your belt as an NFL quarterback, free agency can be a funky experience.
How much would you expect to be paid for beating the division-winning Baltimore Ravens and playoff-qualifier Pittsburgh Steelers (in a snow globe Thursday night game) in a stretch of four weeks?
That’s where Jameis Winston’s mind is going before Tuesday, when teams can officially use the franchise tag and the NFL’s seemingly half-day offseason comes to a close.
Winston is not the top free agent or veteran quarterback on the market, of course. But while others might make a serious play for Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson, could Winston be a surprise moneymaker while shopping for a place to throw his 155th career TD pass?
With career earnings over $76 million after signing for $1.2 million to back up Deshaun Watson with the Cleveland Browns in 2024, Winston is a possible placeholder for teams such as the Tennessee Titans or Las Vegas Raiders while they develop a younger option.
Backups are cost-effective in terms of their potential significance and overall importance. A former No. 2 overall draft pick, Carson Wentz was No. 2 for the Chiefs in 2024 with a guaranteed take of only $2.2 million, a modest figure for the one-snap-away circumstance he walked into behind Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
Winston could approach the $8 million range the New England Patriots paid Jacoby Brissett to be the temporary frontman before handing the keys to Drake Maye in 2024. Marcus Mariota, yet another former No. 2 overall pick selected one spot behind Winston in 2015, was paid $6 million to help teach and peer-coach Jayden Daniels for the Washington Commanders.
Which other NFL free agents might get more money than expected in March?
Vikings CB Byron Murphy
Estimated Value: $16 million per season
Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; A Minnesota Vikings helmet sits idle on the field before the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Murphy picked off a team-leading six passes in 2024, and the Vikings are stressed on salaries, including legendary sidekick Harrison Smith—a free agent with 13 seasons in Minnesota—at safety. If Charvarius Ward leaves the San Francisco 49ers as expected, he is in the running with Murphy as the best cover man on the market. However, teams at the top of the draft might already have their eye on Colorado’s Travis Hunter or Michigan’s Will Johnson, who can be had at a fraction of the price of a top free agent corner.
Murphy is only 27 and could command more than $15 million per year after joining the Vikings in 2023 on a two-year deal at $8.75 million annually.
49ers LB Dre Greenlaw
Value: $10 million per season
Feb 8, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw (57) during a press conference before Super Bowl LVIII at Hilton Lake Las Vegas Resort and Spa. credits: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports He’s 27 and didn’t erase doubts about his ability to return to the junkyard dog style of play that made him a perennial Pro Bowl candidate alongside Fred Warner. The positives? His age and well-known work ethic.
He also mastered the 3-4 defense and can be used in multiple ways depending on the scheme. The negatives? Just now over the one-year mark since rupturing his left Achilles, Greenlaw lasted 30 snaps in his first game back in December, then tried to play through Achilles and knee discomfort a week later, only to be shut down after four plays. Greenlaw retains a high value because of his rep and the proliferation of former 49ers staffers throughout the league, namely DeMeco Ryans with the Houston Texans and former assistant GM Adam Peters, who now calls the shots for the Commanders.
Cardinals LG Will Hernandez
Value: $11 million per season
Sep 29, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals guard Will Hernandez (76) against the Washington Commanders at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Given a choice between Hernandez and Chiefs RG Trey Smith, another unrestricted free agent, most teams are going to lean into Smith.
If the Chiefs do tag Smith, considering left guard and part-time left tackle Joe Thuney also is up for a new deal, Hernandez represents a stellar fallback option. He wrapped up a two-year, $9 million contract with the Arizona Cardinals but played just five games in 2024 due to a torn ACL. Because the injury occurred in October, he is likely to be ready for training camp but celebrates his 30th birthday on Sept. 2. A team with a hole to fill and a power-run scheme could easily offer $9 million to $12 million annually on a three-year deal.
