President Trump’s tariffs have generated around 20 billion dollars in revenue for the U.S. government, although it’s worth noting that a vast majority of this wealth has been derived from import duties on American businesses. In other words, Americans are paying the federal government (many critics have noted that tariffs are just taxes by another name) for the pleasure of doing business with foreign exporters.
For the fiscally confused, the New York Times recently wrote an explainer on tariffs, breaking down how the money has been flowing from American businesses to the federal government. “Tariffs are paid by the companies that import the goods,” the newspaper notes. “The revenue from U.S. tariffs is paid by U.S. importers to the U.S. Treasury Department.” Critics of Trump’s policy have also noted that by bilking U.S. corporations for revenue, the administration is just asking for those companies to pass on the costs to consumers, which is almost certain to drive up the cost of laptops, cars, video games, smartphones, graphic cards, and countless other consumer goods for American consumers.
To make up for all that (or, as he has put it, to allow Americans to “benefit” from this weird new system), Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) now wants to send you a (presumably one-time) $600 check in the mail. The congressman introduced legislation on Monday that has been compared to the CARES Act—the large bill passed during Trump’s first term that distributed money to Americans during the pandemic. NBC reports:
The program would be set up as a refundable tax credit, with the government sending checks this year should the bill advance through Congress and get Trump’s signature. The bill would ensure that the amount provided to each adult and dependent child is at least $600. It also allows for a larger rebate per person should tariff revenue exceed projections.
“Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country,” Hawley said, in a statement shared with the media.
Hawley’s bill appears to be based on something Trump said during a recent press conference. When asked by a journalist about the tariffs, Trump said: “We have so much money coming in, we’re thinking about a little rebate, but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt. But we’re thinking about a rebate.”
It’s unclear how any of this makes sense. If I’m following things correctly, the situation is this: The administration has found a new revenue source in the form of import duties, imposed (mostly) on American businesses to ostensibly “pay down debt” but, at the very same time, the government is also apparently willing to create a stimulus program for hundreds of millions of Americans (the likes of which will, you know, ostensibly cost a lot of money and, while benefiting Americans, also be paid for by them). It should be remembered that the covid stimulus program (which was also a $600 check in the mail) is remembered as a hugely costly federal program that significantly contributed to the national debt and fanned the flames of inflation. Just doing some back-of-the-napkin math, if every American received a stimulus check for $600, the total cost would come out to roughly $205,000,000. That’s just slightly higher than the total estimated revenue from tariffs for the year.
I am not an economist, but something about this whole formula seems to defy basic logic. In fact, the only way I can make it make sense is if Hawley’s “rebate” goes the way of Elon Musk’s “DOGE dividend,” and, after some good press, fails to ever materialize.
