President Donald Trump wants Apple to manufacture the iPhone, its bestselling product, here in the US. And last week he threatened to place a 25% tariff on the phone if the company doesn’t make that happen.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US.” Trump added later that the tariff would apply to any smartphone made outside the US.

Since what Trump touted as “Liberation Day,” the possible effect of tariffs on the iPhone’s price has been widely discussed. Apple is the third-largest company in the US, and most of its products are manufactured in China. Clearly, the iPhone’s ubiquity has made it a symbol for the ongoing uncertainty of the US economy and politics.

Despite tariffs and politics, iPhone prices have remained the same so far this year. But the launch of the rumored iPhone 17 this fall will likely come with a higher price no matter what Trump says. Apple is considering a price increase and could attribute the rise to new and updated features instead of tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. And I agree.

The iPhone hasn’t had a price hike in five years and is due for one. Historically, that’s the longest stretch of time the company has gone without an increase since the five years between the iPhone 5 and the iPhone 7, which ended with the iPhone 8 launching at a higher cost. We can learn a lot by looking at how the company has handled earlier price hikes (and a one-time drop) and what that means for the iPhone 17. 

To figure out how likely we are for a price hike, I grouped iPhone models into a few categories: the standard, the flagships and the behemoths. The standard includes models like the original iPhone, the iPhone 8, the iPhone XR and the iPhone 16. The flagships include variants like the iPhone X, iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro. And the behemoths designation is for phones like the iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone XS Max and iPhone 16 Pro Max. There are other versions that Apple sold, like the iPhone 5C, the SE series, the iPhone Mini line and the current iPhone Plus line, that don’t factor into this analysis. Also, I use the US starting price for each iPhone before any carrier discounts are applied. Let’s dive in.

Standard iPhone prices

Since its debut in 2007, the standard iPhone has had four price increases and one correction. Many folks might remember paying $199 for the original iPhone, but in reality, the phone cost $499 off-contract. In 2008, Apple raised the price $100 with the launch of the iPhone 3G, to $599, where it would stay for four years. Then in 2012, the iPhone 5 was introduced with a taller, 4-inch screen and a higher, $649 price tag.

Fast-forward to 2017, the 10th anniversary of the iPhone, and the iPhone 8 debuted at a cost of $699, a $50 increase. Every year between 2017 and 2019, the price for the standard iPhone changed. In 2018, the iPhone XR launched at $749. The following year, the iPhone 11 came out, and the price dropped back to $699. And what makes that drop interesting is that the iPhone 11 was the first standard Apple phone with two rear cameras: a wide-angle and ultrawide. Up till then, all other standard iPhone models had only a single rear camera. From 2007 to 2019, when Apple increased prices it was in $50 increments, except between the first and second iPhone models.

Then 2020 happened. It was a wild year for the iPhone, and everyone, because of the pandemic. But Apple managed to launch the iPhone 12, which cost $829, marking the largest increase for the standard iPhone: $130. Subsequent models all had the same price: The iPhone 13, 14, 15 and 16 all cost $829.

If Apple follows its previous pattern, then the standard iPhone is due for a price increase. The last raise was in 2020, five years ago, and Apple has never gone six years without a price hike on the standard model. But will the company slowly raise the price over a few years like it did between the iPhone 7, 8 and XR? Or will it go all in like it did with the iPhone 12?

The standard iPhone is Apple’s most popular, and it’s safe to expect that the iPhone 17 will cost more (and would’ve even if Trump hadn’t been elected). Now we just need to wonder how much tariffs and politics might drive the price up even more.

The flagship: iPhone Pro model prices

Apple hasn’t always had an iPhone Pro variant, but it did starting in 2017 with the launch of the iPhone X, which had a starting price of $999. The phone debuted next to the $699 iPhone 8, making the 8’s $50 increase seem like nothing.

But here’s where things get interesting. Apple has never raised the price on the iPhone Pro model. The iPhone X, XS, 11 Pro, 12 Pro, 13 Pro, 14 Pro, 15 Pro and 16 Pro all cost $999. That’s eight years without a price increase!

What’s even more shocking is when you correct for inflation: the 2017 iPhone X’s $999 price would be $1,298 in 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index Inflation calculator. The iPhone Pro is overdue for a price hike, and I expect the iPhone 17 Pro to cost more.

The behemoths: iPhone Plus, Max and Pro Max prices

Since 2014, Apple has sold a big version of the iPhone. Some of these were nothing more than a larger version of the standard iPhone with a bigger screen and battery as well as some minor differences, like the iPhone 6 Plus having optical image stabilization on its camera while the iPhone 6 didn’t. But beginning with the iPhone 7 Plus, the larger version started having “pro” features, like a second rear camera and portrait mode.

In terms of pricing, the iPhone 6 Plus debuted at $749, which was $100 more than the iPhone 6. And that $749 price stuck around for the iPhone 6S Plus and 7 Plus. In 2017, Apple had three iPhone models: the $699 iPhone 8, the $749 iPhone 8 Plus (a $50 increase from the 7 Plus) and the $999 iPhone X.

In 2018, Apple launched the $1,099 iPhone XS Max, which I consider the true successor to the initial iPhone Plus line. That means the big iPhone got a $350 increase in a single year, the largest Apple has ever made. I admit some people might not think the XS Max is a follow-up to the Plus and would deem it an entirely new iPhone variant. But this is my commentary.

Like the iPhone Pro, the Max and Pro Max would have the same price for years. In 2023, Apple raised the barrier of entry for the Pro Max model and didn’t offer a $1,099 version of the iPhone 15 Pro Max with 128GB of storage. Instead, you had to pay $1,199 for the 256GB variant, which technically cost the same as the iPhone 14 Pro Max with 256GB of storage.

The iPhone 17 and 17 Pro’s prices

Even without tariffs, it’s safe to assume that the iPhone 17 lineup’s prices will be higher for some models. But when you factor in everything that’s happened this year, it’s hard to gauge just how much the price will go up and whether that’ll affect just one or two models, or apply across the entire iPhone 17 line.

Earlier this year, Apple raised the price on its most affordable model. Though it lacks the SE branding of the previous low-cost iPhone, the iPhone 16E came with a $599 price tag, $170 more than the $429 iPhone SE (2022). 

Apple doesn’t talk about unreleased products or their prices. But we do have an unusual-for-Apple clue as to how these tariffs could affect the company.

“Assuming the current global tariff rates, policies, and applications do not change for the balance of the quarter and no new tariffs are added, we estimate the impact to add $900 million to our costs,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said during a quarterly earnings call on May 1.

Obviously, that $900 million number wasn’t just for the iPhone, but for all Apple products. And that was three weeks before Trump threatened another tariff aimed purely at the iPhone. But $900 million is a lot for any company to swallow, and eventually that added cost will need to be made up for. That usually means higher prices, even if Apple is pressured by Trump to attribute the increase to “new designs and features.”

If there’s one thing for certain, we’ll know exactly what those prices will be when Apple launches the next generation of iPhone models at its September event.

Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.