How solid have commitments from No. 1 prospects been historically?
No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Cantwell committed to Miami over Georgia, Oregon and Ohio State on Tuesday.
No one is going to stop recruiting the five-star offensive tackle from Nixa, Mo., so Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney looks at how often No. 1 prospects have flipped over the last decade. Each recruitment has been unique along the way.
MORE CANTWELL COVERAGE: Cantwell pulls surprise with Miami choice | How badly does this sting the other contenders? | CanesCounty.com coverage
MORE GORNEY: Recruiting Rumor Mill | Commitment predictions for five-stars
2025: KEELON RUSSELL
The Duncanville, Texas, five-star quarterback made an early commitment to SMU and he would have probably been dynamic in coach Rhett Lashlee’s offense. But it was more than understandable that when Alabama came calling, Russell flipped to the Crimson Tide.
There is an open competition in Tuscaloosa this offseason and while Ty Simpson might have a slight edge, Russell is definitely in the thick of the race. His comp is Jayden Daniels 2.0 and in coach Kalen DeBoer’s system, he could thrive.
2024: JEREMIAH SMITH
December 14, 2022, is the day Smith committed to Ohio State and he stuck with the Buckeyes even though so many teams tried to come in and flip him. The five-star receiver stayed steadfast that if position coach Brian Hartline stayed in Columbus that he would end up there as well and that’s what happened.
There were heavy Miami rumors down the stretch – and Smith made it very interesting on signing day as he didn’t sign for hours after his ceremony as he polished up some NIL language – but he was a superstar for the Buckeyes this past season.
I’ve argued that he is the best high school receiver since Julio Jones. He might end up being even better.
2023: ARCH MANNING
Manning was not your typical No. 1 recruit at all. He didn’t do 7-on-7, he didn’t do camps, he didn’t do Elite 11, he was basically nowhere to be seen, even on social media.
So it comes as no surprise that the five-star quarterback from New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman stayed away from the hoopla when he committed to Texas in late June before his senior season. He then essentially shut down his recruitment. After waiting for two long years behind Quinn Ewers, the Texas offense is now in Manning’s hands.
2022: TRAVIS HUNTER
It still is the biggest flip in Rivals history as on National Signing Day, the two-way superstar flipped his pledge from Florida State to Jackson State as he followed then-coach Deion Sanders there. You know the rest – he left Jackson State to follow Sanders to Colorado before winning the Heisman and becoming the No. 2 overall pick the 2025 NFL Draft.
On our signing day show, we were about to go on with Florida State coach Mike Norvell for a video interview as all the Hunter news was breaking. Norvell was totally professional through it all but still, that one had to hurt so badly as Hunter more than backed up his ranking in college at receiver and cornerback.
2021: QUINN EWERS
Ewers’ recruitment and college journey was a circle of life moment. The five-star quarterback from Southlake (Texas) Carroll committed to Texas, only to back off that pledge about two months later and then he picked Ohio State.
But Ewers would play in only one game for the Buckeyes before transferring to Texas to help lead the Longhorns to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances. Even after having success in college there were still questions about his maturation to the NFL and he was a seventh-round pick by the Miami Dolphins.
2020: BRYAN BRESEE
Earlier in his recruitment, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and Alabama were the standouts for the five-star defensive end from Damascus, Md., and Clemson basically beat out the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions for him.
After Bresee committed in April before his senior season, there was really no serious hint that he was looking at other programs and was more focused on recruiting for the Tigers’ class.
2019: DEREK STINGLEY, JR.
The five-star cornerback from Baton Rouge (La.) Dunham committed to then-coach Les Miles during his freshman year but when there was a coaching change, Stingley backed off that pledge.
Florida and Texas were the other front-runners for Stingley but his relationship with the new LSU staff, especially position coach Corey Raymond, earned a re-commitment to the Tigers. He was the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
2018: TREVOR LAWRENCE
A final two of Clemson and Georgia emerged and shortly after his junior season, the Cartersville, Ga., five-star quarterback picked the Tigers. There were always rumors floating around that Lawrence was a “silent commit” to the Bulldogs for some time but that never really materialized as once he publicly committed to Clemson, he stuck with it.
A decision was expected sooner between Clemson and Georgia, but Lawrence decided to delay his choice and take a final round of visits to Georgia, Clemson, LSU and Alabama before announcing his choice.
2017: NAJEE HARRIS
The five-star running back from Antioch, Calif., committed to Alabama early in his recruitment but the drama really didn’t start until the end.
At the All-American Bowl that year, Harris was not answering questions as rumors persisted about a flip to Michigan. The rumor in San Antonio that week was Harris asked for plane tickets to both Alabama and Michigan because he was so unsure of what he was going to do and even considered flying back to Northern California to figure it out.
That all ended when he was spotted at the Birmingham airport and reported to Tuscaloosa following that all-star event.
2016: RASHAN GARY
The five-star defensive tackle from Paramus (N.J.) Paramus Catholic was no-nonsense throughout his high school career and in his recruitment and then picked Michigan over Clemson and others.
Gary took visits and looked at other programs but the Wolverines were always considered a favorite and they won out. He was the No. 12 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
