By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
With the Big 12 Tournament set to tip off on Tuesday, the final games this weekend will prove decisive.
Five teams have locked in their seeds. Houston is the No. 1 seed, and BYU is the 4 seed. Both will get a double-bye.
Iowa State is assured of the 5 seed; ASU and Colorado can do no better than the 15th and 16th seeds.
The 2 and 3 seeds will be sorted out among Arizona and Texas Tech, which will also get double-byes. The rest remain undetermined.
Here’s an update on the five teams from the West, plus four other teams in the mix.
Arizona (14-5, 20-10)
As March begins, Arizona has more questions than answers. That’s probably not a good sign for a team that’s already a fringe Sweet 16 candidate.
Regardless of what happens in Lawrence this Saturday, the Cats should be able to win their matchup in the First Round.
But anything beyond that is speculative. Opponents have figured out how to attack Tommy Lloyd’s defense and he has yet to adjust.
It feels like another disappointing finish to the year is incoming.
BYU (13-6, 22-8)
There appears to be a gap between the external expectations for BYU and the internal belief within the fanbase.
Saying the Cougars should make the Sweet 16 or the year is a failure shouldn’t be a controversial statement. A loss in the First or Second Round would be embarrassing.
With all of the wins this season and a pile of cash to spend each year, deep runs in the NCAA Tournament are the outside standards.
If they lose in the first weekend, the rest of the college basketball world won’t let them forget. The expectations are real whether the BYU fanbase likes it or not.
Utah (8-11, 16-14)
The Utah boosters got their guy. Alex Jensen has been their primary target and they sealed the deal.
It was an awkward and unprofessional termination of Craig Smith. But that can be forgotten about if Jensen has success in his first season.
At the same time, when your powerful boosters pull strings like this: It better work.
If Jensen’s tenure in Salt Lake City ends in failure, it will indicate the fundamental issues that Utah basketball faces. In other words, it would expose the flaws in the entire program.
Arizona State (4-15, 13-17)
James Harden dropped a bag just for Arizona State to go 4-15 in the Big 12.
The return on investment could be highly discouraging for a key booster like Harden. Will he be willing to commit the same amount of cash if Bobby Hurley is still the coach next year?
It’s a fair question to ask and one that the ASU administration should be considering. Coaches come and go. Rich boosters are not so easily replacable.
All it might take is one phone call from Harden to force the change.
Colorado (2-17, 11-19)
It will take years to fully understand just how historically bad Colorado’s season has been.
It’s a new era in the expanded Big 12 and it remains to be seen if a two-win Conference season is as bad as it seems.
Perhaps a one or two-win year will become commonplace for the teams at the bottom of the standings.
And hey, there are still more games to be played. Who says CU can’t win a game in Kansas City?
Houston (18-1, 26-4)
The Cougars are the Big 12’s lone National Title contender.
Clearly on a different level than the rest of the league, Houston’s performance in the NCAA Tournament is critical to the Conference’s success in the expanded era.
The Big 12 wants to sell its basketball media rights package separately from its football rights. UH is critical to that value.
If Kelvin Sampson’s team can win a National Championship this year, the other 17 teams in the league will benefit in more ways than one.
Texas Tech (14-5, 23-7)
Teams that win on the road have much stronger chances of advancing deep in March. The Red Raiders are 7-2 on the road in Big 12 games and look the part.
It shows in the metrics. Sitting at No. 7 in the NET, a high seed in the NCAA Tournament is expected.
JT Toppin is one of the top players in college basketball and Grant McCasland knows how to coach. He led TTU to the NCAA Tournament last year and is 201-95 overall in his career.
Outside of Houston, the league’s best hope for a Final Four is Texas Tech.
Iowa State (12-7, 22-8)
The loss to BYU doesn’t change the perception of Iowa State. The Clones are capable of a deep run.
Finally healthy and at just the right time, an Elite 8 appearance doesn’t seem that outrageous.
But at a certain point the excuses start to pile up. The fact is, ISU is 12-7 in the Big 12 and fifth in the Conference standings.
They are 4-5 on the road in league play and 5-5 on the road overall this season. That screams “mid” and could foreshadow an early loss in the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas (10-9, 19-11)
It’s Senior Day on Saturday and Arizona is beatable. The environment should be on another level.
Starting the game off strong might be key. If Kansas jumps out to an early lead, the crowd could do its part to keep the Cats contained.
But Tommy Lloyd, his staff, and his players are looking at KU like sharks in the water. This Kansas team is nowhere near the normal standard.
For whatever reason, Lloyd is always able to get his players to step up in big regular-season games. They don’t shy away from the moment. Let’s see how the dice fall.
Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
