January was a pretty quiet month at the box office, even by January standards, which are not particularly high. (That is, unless you live in China where films like “Ne Zha 2” exploded and shattered records, but I digress.) But as is customary in the 2010s and beyond, Marvel is here to save the day … hopefully. “Captain America: Brave New World” is hitting theaters next weekend, and it’s a lock to deliver 2025’s first blockbuster opening, which theaters could sorely use. The question is, can it be a big success like a pre-pandemic superhero film? Or is Marvel Studios rolling the dice with this one?

Director Julius Onah’s take on “Captain America” is currently eyeing an opening weekend in the $81 to $98 million range. That’s more or less in line with earlier tracking numbers, which had the film taking in around $90 million, per The Hollywood Reporter. On the surface, that may seem underwhelming since we’re accustomed to Marvel Cinematic Universe entries clearing $100 million in their debuts with ease. But that is not some arbitrary measure of success.

An over/under $90 million opening would put this in the same ballpark as 2014’s “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” which made $714 million worldwide after a $95 million opening. In that case, we’re talking about arguably the most roundly acclaimed MCU movie to date, so that’s a high bar to live up to. On the flip side, 2013’s “Thor: The Dark World” opened to $85 million en route to a $644 million global haul. That film is considered to be among the MCU’s worst, yet it still put up a very respectable figure.

Dancing around that $90 million figure domestically would set this film up for success, as the MCU also tends to play very well overseas. “Winter Soldier” did more than 63% of its business internationally. That said, we’re not talking about 2014 anymore, and the age of superhero movies having a presumed level of success is long behind us. That raises a great many questions for this movie specifically.

“Brave New World” sees Anthony Mackie return as Sam Wilson. No longer Falcon, he has taken up the mantle of Captain America. After meeting with the newly elected president Thaddeus Ross (Harrison Ford), Sam gets caught up in an international incident and must uncover the reason behind a villainous plot before the mysterious mastermind accomplishes their ultimate goal. The film also stars Danny Ramirez (“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”), Shira Haas (“Bodies”), Carl Lumbly (“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”), and Giancarlo Esposito (“Breaking Bad”). Liv Tyler (Betty Ross) and Tim Blake Nelson (Samuel Sterns) are also reprising their roles from 2008’s “The Incredible Hulk.”

Having Harrison Ford take over in the MCU as Thunderbolt Ross for the late William Hurt feels like an asset to the film. How much does he add to the bottom line in the long run? Do audiences care about Red Hulk, particularly when it’s Ford playing him? That’s just the tip of the iceberg with the big questions that linger over this movie’s long-term success.

Chris Evans played Captain America for nearly a decade in the MCU before retiring from the role after “Avengers: Endgame.” Will audiences be on board for Mackie in the role? This movie is also picking up a plot thread left dangling by “Eternals,” one of the lowest-grossing MCU movies to date. Are audiences going to care?

Beyond that, it’s hard to ignore a movie like “The Marvels” struggling to clear $200 million worldwide in 2023. “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” also had a massive opening before an epic collapse, finishing with $463 million. Yes, “Deadpool & Wolverine” made more than $1.3 billion last year, and that’s encouraging, but that was on the backs of two beloved versions of well-known characters. This could come down to critical reception. If critics and audiences are on board, this movie has a path to success. If word of mouth is rough? It could be a bumpy ride, as this isn’t automatically a sure-fire, must-see thing in the minds of many average moviegoers.

“Captain America: Brave New World” hits theaters on February 14, 2025.