Four teams remain in the men’s NCAA Tournament, and they happen to be the best four teams in the nation.
How do you choose when those are the circumstances?
It’s certainly not easy, but I feel confident that the two teams with royal blue in their color schemes will find their way to the title game.
Here are my best bets for the Final Four.
Cooper Flagg to score 20-plus points
In a game with a low point total (136.5) and a Ken Pom projection of 68-66, Cooper Flagg scoring 20 points would mean he’s tallying nearly 30% of Duke’s points.
He gonna do that against the No. 1 defense in the country?
Since Flagg turned an ankle in the ACC Tournament, he’s only topped 18 points once. That game came against Arizona — a small team that had just one player over 6-foot-8.
As scrappy as Houston is, it starts three guards and has nobody over 6-foot-8.
If J’Wan Roberts, the 23-year old center who has played 170 games for the Cougars, gets in any foul trouble, it’s over for Houston. The Cougars won’t have the size or depth to handle the Duke frontline.
Joseph Tugler, Houston’s promising 19-year old, has fouled out of six games this season.
We saw Gonzaga’s Graham Ike dominate the Cougars, scoring 27 points in the Round of 32. Houston surely watched the Alabama strategy — let’s slow down Cooper Flagg! — but the Crimson Tide actually had the bodies to do it. Flagg only had 16 points, but Alabama lost by 19, as it let shooters Kon Knueppel (21 points) and Tyrese Proctor (17 points) get whatever they wanted.
Houston’s strategy just might be the opposite: We’ll let Flagg get whatever he wants, but we will not let anyone else get open looks, especially from 3. It’s a strategy teams have employed against Nikola Jokić in the NBA playoffs. Because if he’s going to get 10-plus assists and maybe half of those are open 3s, you’re dead.
There’s a world where Kelvin Sampson plays Flagg straight up, and he eats, while others are bottled up.
PICK: Cooper Flagg (+114) to score 20 points or more
Kelvin Sampson on changing Houston’s culture, Cooper Flagg, Final Four
Duke (-208) vs. Houston
Florida (-145) vs. Auburn
Moneyline parlay bets on favorites have been incredibly effective throughout the Tournament. Duke has been a juggernaut, and I don’t think it will have too many problems with Houston’s frontline, though a monster 3-point night from the top deep-shooting team in the nation could take down the Blue Devils.
Florida is tricky, because it already beat Auburn at Auburn back in February. It did it without Alijah Martin, who has scored in double-figures 10 games in a row and also kept the Gators afloat against UConn in the second round before Walter Clayton pulled it out late.
It seems like the public is down on Florida after needing late rallies to beat the Huskies and Texas Tech. Both teams are deep and talented. Neither are great free-throw shooting teams, so creating margin could be difficult.
There is a mild travel concern for me with Florida, which got shipped West for the Tournament, then went back to Florida and now has to go back to San Antonio for the Final Four.
PICK: Parlay Duke ML (-208), Florida ML (-145)
Duke (-4.5) vs. Houston
Depending on where you shop, the Blue Devils opened at 5.5, then it dipped to 4.5 after Houston looked impressive dismembering Tennessee from the mighty SEC.
If you look at some of the advanced analytics, there is a disconnect with the point spread. KenPom has Duke by two; Bart Torvik has Houston by one (Torvik also has Auburn over Florida by one).
The Cougars suffered three losses before December, two of them in overtime. Since Dec 1, the Cougars are 31-1 with the lone loss coming by one against Texas Tech.
Houston overwhelms teams with aggression and tenacity defensively, and have two scoring guards in the backcourt. Duke’s defensive length inside and out has given everyone problems. Houston will be out for revenge after last season’s Sweet 16 loss — when its star went down before halftime — but I often go with the No. 1 offense over the No. 1 defense in the NBA, NFL, college football and college hoops, as well.
PICK: Duke to win by more than 4.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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